2017 Budget Review

The 2017 budget was presented on Friday 30th September 2016, with the known decline in State revenue having the expected impact. As shown in the graph and table, the Estimate of Revenue is now down to $47.4 Billion, which is itself a doubtful figure as I will show, with Estimated Expenditure at $53.475 Billion. That means the 2017 budget is being deficit financed by $6.075 Billion.
05-17_budget

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Revenue (millions TT$) $24,016 $34,129 $35,126 $40,381 $49,465 $36,664 $41,284 $47,000 $50,736 $55,041 $60,351 $60,287 $47,400
Expenditure (millions TT$) $27,918 $34,119 $38,054 $42,261 $44,206 $36,915 $49,016 $54,600 $58,405 $61,398 $64,664 $63,048 $53,475
Surplus/Deficit
(millions TT$)		 -$3,902 $10 -$2,928 -$1,880 $5,259 -$252 -$7,732 -$7,600 -$7,669 -$6,357 -$4,313 -$2,761 -$6,075

Continue reading “2017 Budget Review” →

Property Matters – 2017 Budget Prospects

The 2017 budget is due to be presented on Friday, 30 September 2016 to an anxious nation. Having had to endure the literally unbelievable optimistic economic claims of the previous government prior to the September 2015 general election, we were told by then Central Bank Governor, Jwala Rambaran, in December 2015, that the nation had been in recession for 6 months. I tell you. Of course that message has now been repeated after the messenger was dismissed for various alleged offenses, but that is for another column.

Our levels of public expenditure have moved sharply upward, with only a single decline in 2010, as shown in the graph and table for 2005-2016. Those totals are derived from the estimates stated in the various budget statements and do not represent the actuals. In that period, estimated revenue was $534.57Bn with estimated expenditure of $574.6Bn. That balance between revenue and expenditure yielded a combined deficit of $40.125Bn – 84% of which ($33.67Bn) occurred under the Peoples Partnership government, 2011-2015. Continue reading “Property Matters – 2017 Budget Prospects” →

VIDEO: INVADERS’ BAY ISSUES on ‘The Morning Edition’ on TV6 – 20 September 2016.

tv6_logoJCC Immediate Past-President, Afra Raymond, interviewed by TV6’s Kejan Haynes on Morning Edition on Tuesday 20 September 2016 on the ongoing issues at development site at Invader’s Bay and their connection to the larger procurement public policy issues. Video courtesy TV6

  • Programme Air Date: Tuesday 20 September 2016
  • Programme Length: 0:20:45

Property Matters – Hotel Facts

No Man's Land, Tobago is a potential site for Sandals Resort in TobagoThe previous article on the Sandals Tobago proposal ended by pointing to the need for attention to the underlying, commercial arrangements which drive projects of this type.

The procurement model is key to understanding how these large-scale, internationally-branded hotels are created and sustained. The two ends of the procurement show different approaches –

  1. hiltonposthe T&T model is one in which the State paid to design, build, fit and furnish the hotel to the specifications of the hotelier. The hotel then operates via a management contract which splits the revenue between the State and the hotelier. Trinidad Hilton, Tobago Hilton/Magdalena Grand and Hyatt Regency were built by the State using this method.
  2. The other approach is one in which the hotelier constructs the hotel and receives tax concessions from the ‘host State’ in return.

Both these are Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) in which risk and reward are shared.

Continue reading “Property Matters – Hotel Facts” →

Property Matters – Pay Day? Part Two

past-dueI previously estimated State debt to the construction industry in the $3.2-3.5 Billion range. I have since been reliably informed that construction industry claims against WASA are estimated to be in the $600M range, which of course would be subject to verification as discussed previously. My revised estimate (see table below) is now in excess of $3.8 Billion, compared to the JCC’s 27 July 2016 estimate of $2.3 Billion.

The size of my more recent estimate gives a severe picture of the State’s indebtedness to the construction industry, which is the sector that Central Bank research shows to be the largest employer in the national economy. Apart from that, the construction industry also has deep links to other important parts of the national economy such as quarrying; banking/finance/insurance; hardware stores; a range of manufacturers; transportation and so on. Continue reading “Property Matters – Pay Day? Part Two” →

Property Matters – Pay Day?

JCC press conference with Dr. James Armstrong at left. Photo: AYANNA KINSALE. © 2016, Trinidad Express
JCC press conference with Dr. James Armstrong at left. Photo: AYANNA KINSALE. © 2016, Trinidad Express

The JCC has become dormant by today’s standards, with only two items posted to its website for 2016. I was therefore very interested in their 27th July 2016 Press Conference to protest the high levels of State debt to its members.

At a time of apparent crisis for the construction industry, one would think that the JCC would have been publicly lobbying on behalf of its membership since this had been so effective earlier. When Dr Armstrong became JCC President it was surprising that instead of applying continuous pressure to have the debts owed to members paid, the association’s first public action was an attack on me. Perhaps they thought this was a higher priority, but it’s hard to see how the industry benefited.

The JCC issued an ultimatum to the Government to pay the $2.3 Billion dollar debt owed to its members by 30th August or face litigation. Continue reading “Property Matters – Pay Day?” →

VIDEO: Afra Raymond at Tobago Benchmark Symposium on 18 Aug 2016

tobago-benchmark-flyerTobago Benchmark hosted a symposium on the “Impact of Sandals Resort on Tobago and No Man’s Land” on Thursday 18th August 2016 at the Buccoo Community Center. Afra Raymond was one of the guest speakers, focusing his talk on the “underlying commercial arrangements” which no one likes to talk about. Examples throughout the Caribbean are seemingly secret, but there are examples from Trinidad and Tobago that can set a context for what is important as opposed to what is merely interesting. Video courtesy Tobago Benchmark.

Read the post on “Property Matter – Sandals Tobago?” for more context.

The Colman Report

PM issues Statement on CLICO Report of Sir Anthony David Colman, QC. Courtesy news.gov.tt
PM issues Statement on CLICO Report of Sir Anthony David Colman, QC. Courtesy news.gov.tt

“…This country should rest comfortably in the knowledge that the Government of Trinidad and Tobago…will do nothing to impede the flow of justice in this or any matter. And we will do everything within its duty and authority to facilitate the holding to account any and all persons who may have been found to have questions to answer. Like every other citizen, it is our expectation that as rights to fair treatment are protected, justice must always take its course swiftly…”
—Extract from Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley’s statement to Parliament on the Colman Report on Friday, 1 July 2016. The emphases are mine.

This season is always one of reflection and re-dedication for me, with the two month transition from Emancipation Day on 1 August to Independence on the 31 August, then onto Republic Day on 24 September. I always spend this spell in some sober reflection, in between the life. It seems to me that the very sequence of events and the consequent holidays in the season imbue it with an inner meaning in terms of a national transition to some kind of depth and purpose. Emancipation to Independence to Republican status…maybe that is just sentimental of me, but let us see.

If we are not vigilant, there is a real danger that the details of this entire CL Financial matter – both the failure of the group and the huge bailout – will be made to disappear in an epic legal mangle. There has never been a conviction for large-scale white collar crime in our country. The CL Financial collapse is such a serious episode that there is inescapable evidence which can ensure consequences. At the same time, the main players are so wealthy and influential that they can devise an effective way to avoid justice, unless we exercise vigilance in the public interest. Continue reading “The Colman Report” →

Property Matters – Sandals Tobago?

No Man's Land, Tobago is a potential site for Sandals Resort in Tobago
No Man’s Land, Tobago is a potential site for Sandals Resort in Tobago

The recent official statements about a proposal for a Sandals Resort in Tobago are significant, given both the convulsions in the Tourism portfolio and the urgent need to diversify our economy away from its long-term dependence on energy earnings. This is a preliminary view of some of the relevant considerations, since the sparse details now available do not permit a critique.

The various official statements outline that Sandals are in discussions with the State towards a new 750-room resort to be located in Tobago, which would both increase the overall room stock and bring collateral benefits if it proceeds.

Some of the main considerations are – Continue reading “Property Matters – Sandals Tobago?” →